Your weekly dose of Ethiopia’s sharpest business, economic, and finance news.
Grab your buna and catch up on what’s moving Ethiopia’s markets and economy this week.
Economy & Finance
Birr Set to Strengthen
National Bank Governor Eyob Tekalign (PhD) expects Ethiopia’s birr to appreciate in coming months after a record $3.5B gold export, surpassing coffee for the first time. IMF-backed reforms—FX liberalization and inflation control—have narrowed the official–parallel market gap and boosted manufacturing capacity to 60%. The stronger external position also supports debt-restructuring talks with eurobond holders. Read more
Tax Revenue Doubles Amid Informal Trader Crackdown
Ethiopia’s tax revenue surged 112% to 323B Birr in Q1 2025/26, driven by aggressive reforms targeting informal traders. Over 150,000 new traders joined the tax net, aided by digital tax systems and prepayment mechanisms. Small businesses report strain, but authorities call the reforms a “structural shift” for domestic revenue mobilization. Read more
NBE Cracks Down on Businesses Using Personal Accounts
The National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) ordered commercial banks to report businesses using personal or third-party accounts instead of official business accounts, citing tax evasion and illicit flows. Under Proclamation No. 1359/2025, banks must submit detailed information, part of a wider effort to strengthen financial system integrity. Read more
NBE Targets Illegal Hawala Operators
The NBE intensified enforcement against illegal hawala networks, warning operators to “go legit or go quiet.” Governor Eyob Tekalign emphasized cooperation with banks and foreign money transfer agents, with strong regulatory measures for those ignoring compliance rules. Read more
Ethiopia Explores Yuan Swap with China
Ethiopia is negotiating to convert part of its $5.38B debt to China from dollars to yuan, aiming to cut interest costs and strengthen trade ties. Governor Tekalign noted the move “makes sense” due to strong Ethiopia-China trade. Kenya’s recent swap saved $215M annually. Ethiopia’s dollar bonds rallied 4.3%, and the swap aligns with BRICS’ de-dollarization ambitions. Read more
Deep Dive – Exclusive
The New Ladder of Inequality: Who Wins and Who Loses in Ethiopia’s Reform Era
Ethiopia’s shift from a state-led to a market-driven economy is creating new winners—and many left behind. Dollar earners, exporters, and diaspora-linked families see their incomes soar, while public-sector workers and birr-dependent households struggle as inflation and currency depreciation bite.
Rapid reforms, privatization, and liberalization favor those with capital, networks, and financial know-how, leaving the urban middle class under pressure. The result: a dual economy where opportunity is tied less to effort and more to access and positioning.
Ethiopia’s challenge is clear—ensure that growth and reform lift all, not just a select few. Read more
Capital Markets & Investment
Major Financial Institutions Should List on ESX
Tilahun Esmael Kassahun (PhD), CEO of ESX, urges banks and insurers to list on ESX’s main or growth markets rather than the OTC platform. Listing provides credibility, liquidity, lower transaction fees, and better investor access. ESX’s requirements are practical: ETB 500M (main) / ETB 50M (growth) paid-up capital, 2–3 years audited financials, and 10–15% free float. Trading outside regulated platforms is illegal, he stresses. Read more
ECMA Issues New Supervision Guidelines
The Ethiopian Capital Market Authority (ECMA) released supervision guidelines to enhance transparency, investor protection, and market integrity ahead of the securities exchange launch. The hybrid compliance + risk-based model includes off-site reviews, on-site inspections, stress testing, and timely reporting. Penalties for non-compliance range from fines to license revocation. Read more
Infrastructure & Energy
Koysha Hydropower Project Hits 70% Completion
The Koysha Hydropower Project in SNNPR is now 128 meters high, 70% complete, and will generate 2,160 MW once finished, making it Ethiopia’s second-largest after GERD. Built by Webuild Group at €2.5B, an additional $950M is secured for the next phase. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed recently reviewed progress.
Ethiopia Plans $1.6B Railway Link to Red Sea Ports
Ethiopian Railway Corporation (ERC) unveiled a $1.58B standard-gauge rail project connecting northern Ethiopia to Tadjourah, Assab, and Massawa ports. The 216 km Weldiya–Hara Gebeya–Mekelle line is separate from ongoing arbitration with Turkish contractor Yapi Merkezi. Execution depends on foreign and multilateral financing. Read more
Trade & Commodities
Arabica Coffee Prices Surge to Record High
Global Arabica coffee prices hit $4.26/lb, the highest since 2015, driven by Brazil droughts and tight supply. While Ethiopia cannot directly sell under ICE contracts, higher global prices may boost revenues. Efforts to modernize the coffee value chain and expand direct trade could help Ethiopia capture more value from Yirgacheffe, Sidamo, and Guji beans. Read more
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Aviation & Industry
Ethiopian Airlines to Enter Aircraft Manufacturing
Ethiopian Airlines is preparing to manufacture aircraft components locally and supply Boeing. The move builds on Kilinto Industrial Park, producing insulation blankets and wire harnesses since 2023. Collaboration with Boeing Africa includes STEM and engineering training, with multi-billion-dollar aircraft orders reinforcing Addis Ababa as Africa’s aviation hub. Read more
Stay tuned for next week’s insights, where we unpack more sectoral trends and policy moves shaping Ethiopia’s future.
Enjoyed this edition? Forward it to your circle or reply with tips and scoops—we’re always listening.Stay curious, stay caffeinated, — Written by the StockMarket.et Newsroom
