The Democratic Republic of Congo is projected to surpass Ethiopia to become sub-Saharan Africa’s fifth-largest economy in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund.
IMF estimates place Congo’s gross domestic product (GDP) at $123 billion, slightly ahead of Ethiopia’s projected $122 billion. South Africa is expected to remain the region’s largest economy, followed by Nigeria, Angola, and Kenya.
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Congo’s economic momentum is being driven by a mining boom and a strengthening currency. The country, a leading global producer of cobalt and a major source of copper, is attracting increased investment amid rising demand for critical minerals used in battery production and clean energy technologies.
In recent developments, Congo raised $1.25 billion through its first international dollar bond issuance, signaling growing investor confidence. Officials cite relatively low debt levels and ongoing economic reforms as key factors supporting the country’s outlook.
The Congolese franc has appreciated significantly over the past year, contrasting with Ethiopia’s birr, which has weakened following exchange rate liberalization in 2024. Ethiopia’s reforms, however, helped unlock a $3.4 billion IMF program and broader financial support from the World Bank.
Despite losing its position in ranking, Ethiopia is expected to post stronger growth, with the IMF forecasting 9.2% expansion in 2026 compared to Congo’s 5.9%. Across the region, sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by 4.3%.
Ethiopia continues to face macroeconomic pressures, including currency volatility and fuel supply constraints linked to global disruptions.
