Good morning!
If last week sounded like a quiet one, look again. The insurance sector got its first real opening, the Capital Market Authority quietly finalised the directive that turns ordinary savers into investors, the country pulled diesel back to pre-war levels, and Binance told Ethiopian crypto users their birr trades are on borrowed time.
Now grab your buna. There’s a lot on the plate this week.
Capital Market Spotlight
ECMA finalises the Collective Investment Schemes directive
The week’s most important capital market move didn’t come with a bell-ringing ceremony. The Ethiopian Capital Market Authority finalised its long-awaited Collective Investment Schemes (CIS) directive and submitted it to the Ministry of Justice for legal review and registration. Once approved, it becomes the regulatory basis for mutual funds, unit trusts, money market funds, and real estate investment funds in Ethiopia, the structures that turn small individual savings into pooled, diversified, professionally managed capital.
The shift this represents is bigger than it sounds. For decades, higher-return investment opportunities like real estate, corporate debt, and large infrastructure projects were effectively reserved for wealthy individuals and big institutions. Under the new framework, licensed fund managers can pool small contributions from many investors and channel them into government bonds, corporate debt, money market instruments, and large real estate developments. The inclusion of Real Estate Investment Funds, similar to REITs elsewhere, is particularly notable, it lets retail investors buy units in major property projects while giving developers a wider pool of capital.
ECMA also signalled that one large international institution is reportedly close to entering the Ethiopian market, having completed procedures with the Investment Commission, and that Ethiopia will co-host the East African Regulators Roundtable in early June. Cross-listings with Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Nigeria are being discussed. Source: 2merkato
Insurance Sector Reform
Ethiopia drafts sweeping new insurance law
The National Bank of Ethiopia released a draft Insurance Proclamation that, if passed, would be one of the most consequential financial sector reforms. Three things stand out.
First, the law opens the insurance sector to foreign investors for the first time. Foreign insurers will be allowed to establish wholly or partially owned subsidiaries, acquire stakes in domestic firms, or open representative offices, subject to a 40 percent ownership cap for strategic investors and a 49 percent aggregate foreign ownership ceiling. This mirrors the recent banking liberalisation framework.
Second, it creates the Ethiopian Insurance Regulatory Authority (EIRA) as an independent regulator, transferring all supervisory powers from NBE. Specialised oversight separated from the central bank, this is a structural shift, not just a technical one.
Third, the draft introduces frameworks long missing from the market: a regulatory sandbox for innovative insurance products including FinTech-assisted services, a complete framework for Takaful and Re-Takaful (Islamic insurance), and a new “inclusive insurer” license aimed at underserved and informal economy segments. Bancassurance is officially permitted, and risk-based capital frameworks, independent director requirements, and tighter governance standards round out the proposal.
The context: Ethiopia’s insurance penetration sits at roughly 0.3 percent of GDP, against an African average of 3.6 percent and a global average of 6.5 percent. With 19 insurers and one reinsurer serving more than 120 million people, the market is structurally underdeveloped. Domestic players have grown premiums 40-50 percent annually in recent years, but limited competition has held back innovation, capital, and product range, particularly in agriculture, infrastructure, and climate risk. If enacted, this draft replaces the 2012 and 2019 frameworks entirely.
Crypto & Digital Finance
Binance to suspend Ethiopian Birr trading from May 15
The world’s largest crypto exchange announced it will disable all trading involving the Ethiopian Birr (ETB) from May 15, 2026, citing regulatory pressure. Users have been advised to close open P2P orders and adjust liquidity ahead of the deadline. After May 15, all ETB advertisements and trading pairs are removed; ongoing disputes will continue to be processed.
The move follows roughly two months after the National Bank of Ethiopia declared birr-denominated peer-to-peer crypto transactions illegal unless explicitly authorised, citing fraud risks, price volatility, and the absence of consumer protections. The NBE has signalled it is working toward a comprehensive regulatory framework that could allow more structured digital asset participation, but until then, birr-paired P2P trading remains prohibited.
Two things to keep in mind here. First, the suspension matters because Binance’s P2P platform has been one of the few practical channels for Ethiopian freelancers, remote workers, and exporters to convert birr into stablecoins or hard currency, particularly given persistent FX shortages. Second, this isn’t isolated, OKX and Bybit have made similar moves, and Kenya recently froze Binance accounts at the request of law enforcement. The era of unregulated birr-to-crypto P2P is ending across the region. Whether what replaces it is a structured local exchange or a tighter underground market is the question.
Banking & Financial Services
Commercial Bank of Ethiopia crosses 2.1 trillion birr in deposits
CBE reported strong nine-month performance for the 2025/26 fiscal year. Total deposits crossed 2.1 trillion birr, up from 1.68 trillion birr at the end of the previous fiscal year, a 493.7 billion birr increase in just nine months. The bank also collected 3.6 billion dollars in foreign currency over the period, reflecting its central role in Ethiopia’s tightly managed FX system.
The more striking number is on the digital side: digital channels accounted for more than 89 percent of total transaction value as of March 31, 2026. CBE is no longer a branch bank that happens to have an app, it’s a digital bank with a branch network. President Abe Sano flagged credit disbursement, cost efficiency, customer acquisition, and equity strengthening as priorities for the remaining quarter.
FSD Ethiopia CEO Hikmet Abdella joins INPRF Board
Hikmet Abdella, CEO of Financial Sector Deepening (FSD) Ethiopia, has been appointed to the board of the International Non-Profit Reporting Foundation (INPRF), the body responsible for implementing the first-ever International Non-Profit Accounting Guidance (INPAG). Hikmet, formerly Director General of the Accounting and Auditing Board of Ethiopia and founding country head of ACCA Ethiopia, brings a developing-country perspective to a global standard-setting process that will eventually shape how non-profits report financials worldwide. Source: Capital Ethiopia
Aviation & Payments
Ethiopian Airlines and Visa expand co-branded card partnership
Ethiopian Airlines and Visa announced a deepened collaboration to expand co-branded payment card offerings. The agreement focuses on driving adoption of co-branded Visa cards across Ethiopian Airlines’ customer base, joint marketing, loyalty programs, and tighter integration of payments into the booking and travel journey.
The strategic logic is simple. Ethiopian operates one of Africa’s largest aviation networks, more than 145 destinations and 170-plus aircraft. Visa processes over 215 billion payment transactions annually across 200+ countries. Co-branded cards turn Ethiopian’s loyalty programme (Sheba Miles) into a daily-spend touchpoint and turn Visa’s network into the airline’s payment rails. For travellers, that means more rewards on flights and everyday purchases. For Ethiopian, it means recurring payment data and stronger loyalty economics. For Visa, it’s a foothold in a market where digital payment adoption is accelerating fast.
Energy & Macro
Ethiopia restores diesel supply to pre-war levels
The Ministry of Finance announced that daily diesel supply has been restored to 9 million litres, the level held before the Middle East conflict halved supply to 4.5 million litres for two months. Finance Minister Ahmed Shide confirmed that diesel transportation from Djibouti to Addis Ababa has resumed, with regional distribution starting the next day. Gasoline and jet fuel supplies remained stable throughout the disruption.
The relief is real but partial. Diesel retail prices were raised by nearly 17 percent earlier in the month to 163.09 birr per litre, and the government has been importing fuel at higher prices through special procurement arrangements to cushion the domestic economy. The crisis has already worked its way into food and commodity prices, particularly fresh produce. Restoration of supply should ease that pressure, but the price level itself is structurally higher than it was before the war.
Mid-year budget deficit pushes past 93 billion birr
The federal government posted a 93.6 billion birr budget deficit in the first half of the 2025/26 fiscal year, as expenditure growth (almost 80 percent year-on-year, to 798 billion birr) outpaced revenue growth (55 percent year-on-year, to 705 billion birr). Tax revenue, at 580 billion birr, made up 82 percent of total collections. Corporate income tax surged more than 92 percent year-on-year, credited to the introduction of quarterly advance payments and the National Medium-Term Revenue Strategy.
Two pressure points worth noting. Recurrent spending doubled, driven by civil service salary adjustments, expanded social protection, fuel and fertiliser subsidies, and the Productive Safety Net Programme. And interest payments on domestic debt rose more than 250 percent. The government leaned heavily on domestic borrowing (139.7 billion birr) to fund the gap, with external financing playing a more limited role given Ethiopia’s default credit rating and global tightening.
Despite this, the Ministry projects 10.2 percent GDP growth for 2025/26, with first-half exports past USD 5 billion driven largely by gold. Imports also grew 23.3 percent, widening the trade deficit from USD 5.9 billion to USD 6.3 billion year-on-year.
Ministry of Revenue collects 1.1 trillion birr in nine months
Closing out the fiscal picture, the Ministry of Revenue announced 1.1 trillion birr in tax collections over the first nine months of the fiscal year. Minister Aynalem Nigussie credited the result to leadership and reform momentum but warned that Ethiopia’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains well below potential. To close the gap, the Ministry is focused on tax debt collection, VAT administration, and identifying untapped revenue sources, work tied to the Digital Transformation Strategy 2030 and World Bank-supported projects.
Mining & Foreign Currency
Gambella delivers 5.5 tonnes of gold to NBE
Ethiopia’s Gambella region supplied 5,535 kilograms of gold to the National Bank of Ethiopia over the first nine months of the fiscal year, exceeding last year’s comparable level by more than 1,278 kg. The increase reflects expanded production, modernised extraction methods, and better enforcement against leakages from artisanal, small-scale, and industrial producers.
Why this matters: gold has overtaken coffee as Ethiopia’s top export earner since the 2024 currency reform, with the formalisation of artisanal supply playing a key role. Every kilo that enters the central bank instead of leaking through smuggling routes is a kilo that supports the birr, builds reserves, and reduces parallel-market pressure. Gambella’s numbers are a microcosm of the bigger story, formalisation as a foreign exchange strategy. Source: BirrMetrics
Startups & Innovation
Dodai secures $13 million Series A for electric mobility
Electric mobility startup Dodai raised $13 million in Series A financing, $8 million equity and $5 million debt, to scale electric motorbikes and battery-swapping infrastructure in Ethiopia. Investors include British International Investment (BII), Value Chain Innovation Fund, UTokyo Innovation Platform, Nagase & Co., Persistent ACV Fund, For Seasons, CBC Co., and Inclusion Japan.
The numbers behind the raise: Dodai has assembled and deployed more than 2,000 electric motorbikes since launching three years ago. Over the next 12 months, it targets 3,000 active battery-swapping users supported by 30 stations across Addis Ababa. Over three years, the goal is 30,000 users and 1,000 swap stations in the city, before expanding to Abidjan, Kinshasa, and Accra. BII CEO Leslie Maasdorp called Ethiopia “one of Africa’s most compelling frontier markets for the clean mobility transition.”
Real Economy & Business
AICC approves 7.5 billion birr expansion despite first-year loss
The Addis International Convention Center (AICC) Share Company approved a second-phase expansion worth 7.537 billion birr, less than a year after inaugurating its first phase. The financing structure: 3.7 billion birr (49 percent) from existing and new shareholders, 3.837 billion birr (51 percent) from commercial bank loans. Once complete, paid-up capital reaches 20.5 billion birr, putting AICC among the highest-capitalised service-sector firms in East Africa.
The decision came alongside an honest acknowledgment of headwinds. AICC posted a 150.4 million birr net loss in its first year of operation, with depreciation charges of 80.17 million birr, a fivefold increase in administrative and labour costs, and a 46 percent vacancy rate across rental space. Revenue did jump from 14.6 million birr in early operations to 88.97 million birr by year-end, suggesting traction is building. The Addis Ababa City Administration remains the primary shareholder at 90 percent (1,093 private investors hold the remaining 10 percent) and injected 6.1 billion birr in capital during 2024/25 alone.
AICC’s share of the domestic convention market could reach 87.5 percent, positioning Addis Ababa to compete with Nairobi, Cape Town, and other African capitals for African Union, UNECA, and major international forums. Whether the demand catches up with the capacity is the real question. Source: Capital Ethiopia
Dashen Breweries appoints Mathias Getachew as CEO
Dashen Breweries SC named Mathias (Matiyas) Getachew as Chief Executive Officer following an extensive global search, making him the first Ethiopian to lead a major brewery in a sector long dominated by expatriate executives. Mathias joined Dashen as CFO in 2020 and served as Acting CEO from October 2025 following the departure of Mario Van Geldern. He’s an ACCA-qualified accountant with a master’s from Heriot-Watt and prior experience at SABMiller, Coca-Cola Beverages Africa, and Diageo.
The story is bigger than one appointment. Coca-Cola and Unilever have made similar transitions to local leadership in recent years. Dashen joining that list signals a quiet but consistent pattern across Ethiopian consumer goods, expatriate leadership being replaced by Ethiopian executives with multinational training and local market depth. Founded in 2000 by Tiret Corporate, Dashen has been majority-owned by UK-based Duet Group since 2012 and operates breweries in Gondar and Debre Birhan.
Deep Dive: Why Can’t LLMs Speak Amharic?
This week’s deep dive on StockMarket.et goes far beyond the surface complaint that AI doesn’t work well in Amharic. Author Abebe Sendek ‘s argument is that the problem is economic, not technical, and that economics is what makes it solvable.
A few of the structural points worth sitting with:
The data gap is even worse than the headline number. Amharic represents about 0.0036 percent of indexed web content, one page in 28,000, and most of what exists is religious or liturgical. The Amharic Wikipedia has roughly 15,000 articles to English’s 6+ million. But the gap doubles when you count romanized Amharic, “Selam” instead of “ሰላም”, which is how most urban Ethiopians actually write the language digitally and is invisible to AI training pipelines because the models read it as broken English.
The token tax is a structural commercial penalty. The word “ኢትዮጵያ” tokenises into 10 fragments. “Ethiopia” tokenises into 3. That’s a 3.3x penalty at the word level and 5-7x at the sentence level, every Amharic API call costs 5-7 times more, runs slower, and reasons over a smaller working memory than the same call in English. Building an Amharic-first AI product is structurally unprofitable before you write a single line of code. This explains, more than anything else, why so few Ethiopian companies have built serious Amharic AI tools.
Reasoning is English all the way down. Even when models produce Amharic output, the reasoning layer underneath was trained almost entirely on English instruction tuning and English-speaking RLHF evaluators. The model isn’t reasoning in Amharic, it’s reasoning in English and dressing the output in Amharic. When the task gets complex, financial analysis, legal interpretation, multi-step problem solving, the architecture breaks under the surface even if the vocabulary holds.
Ethiopian language data is being extracted without reciprocity. News articles, government documents, academic papers, court records, all scraped, all already used in training, all without licensing fees, revenue shares, or commitments that resulting models will be available to Ethiopian users at any reasonable quality or price. Māori organisations in New Zealand fought that battle and now have data sovereignty agreements. Ethiopia hasn’t started the conversation.
What’s actually being built locally: Lesan AI (Amharic-Tigrinya-Afaan Oromo-Somali translation that outperforms Google Translate and Microsoft Translator on these languages), EthioNLP (the most comprehensive NLP catalogue for Ethiopian languages), EthioLLM (open-source multilingual models for five Ethiopian languages), and Masakhane (the pan-African NLP collective). All real, all under-resourced, all without serious institutional backing from Ethiopian banks, universities, or government.
The closing argument: this is not a story about technology, it’s a story about who pays for what. Frontier labs allocate resources to paying customers in dollar-denominated markets. Amharic isn’t on the dashboard. The next decade of Ethiopia’s digital economy will run on language models, and the choice is between building tools that speak to us, or spending the decade learning to speak to them. Read the full piece on stockmarket.et, it’s worth the 37 minutes. Read more
That’s your Monday Breakfast Stories for this week. The capital market has its mutual funds directive, the insurance sector has a draft proclamation, the diesel queues are easing, the gold is flowing to the central bank, and a homegrown brewery just got a homegrown CEO. Meanwhile, Binance is heading for the exit, the budget deficit is widening, and the country is having an honest conversation about why the AI revolution is being built in someone else’s language.
Keep your coffee strong, your tabs open, and maybe think about which language your next product is going to speak.
See you next Monday. ☕
